Now when the south wind blew gently, supposing that they had obtained their purpose, they weighed anchor and sailed along Crete, close to the shore. 14 But soon a tempestuous wind, called the northeaster, struck down from the land. 15 And when the ship was caught and could not face the wind, we gave way to it and were driven along. 16 Running under the lee of a small island called Cauda, we managed with difficulty to secure the ship’s boat. 17 After hoisting it up, they used supports to undergird the ship. Then, fearing that they would run aground on the Syrtis, they lowered the gear, and thus they were driven along. 18 Since we were violently storm-tossed, they began the next day to jettison the cargo. 19 And on the third day they threw the ship’s tackle overboard with their own hands. 20 When neither sun nor stars appeared for many days, and no small tempest lay on us, all hope of our being saved was at last abandoned.
21 Since they had been without food for a long time, Paul stood up among them and said, “Men, you should have listened to me and not have set sail from Crete and incurred this injury and loss. 22 Yet now I urge you to take heart, for there will be no loss of life among you, but only of the ship. 23 For this very night there stood before me an angel of the God to whom I belong and whom I worship, 24 and he said, ‘Do not be afraid, Paul; you must stand before Caesar. And behold, God has granted you all those who sail with you.’ 25 So take heart, men, for I have faith in God that it will be exactly as I have been told. 26 But we must run aground on some island.”
I seldom struggle with a sense of despair. My hope quotient is mostly well above 50%. Hopefully (no play on words here), that’s not because I have delusions of adequacy. But I do see the world through possibility lenses – rose-colored or otherwise. I tend to see around problems, and look for solutions. I most often take preemptive action. I know nature abhors a vacuum, and so does a difficult situation. It will pull solutions of many kinds into its black hole of possibilities. Some of those solutions will not honor God. Some will be harmful to the Body of Christ. Some will be hurtful to me or those I love. Some may be good, helpful, edifying, and God-honoring.
Luke tells us that the people aboard the ship “gave up all hope of being saved.” The storm’s relentlessness wears them down mentally and physically. Without any visible sign of salvation, fear and despair set in, making survival seem impossible.
These two dynamics destroy hope, paralyze us, and quash resourceful and creative thinking. Rather than reflecting on the possibilities and God’s hand in what faces us, we get stuck in the malestom of negativity, doubt, and hopelessness.
We must learn to face the brutal facts. That’s half of the equation, however. There is another equally-important and necessary thing we must do. We must hold onto hope. This is the essence of the Stockdale Paradox.
Jim Collins, in his book, Good to Great identified the “Stockdale Paradox,” named after Admiral James Stockdale. Stockdale was one of the most decorated United States Navy officers, who was also awarded the Medal of Honor in the Vietnam War. As a prisoner of war from 1965 to 1973, Stockdale was tortured over 20 times, had no prisoner’s rights, no release date, and no idea of whether he would survive to see his family again. Yet, he survived when many of his co-prisoners didn’t.
He did so by facing the brutal facts of his situation, but never giving up hope of being freed. But his was not a hope oblivious of his dreadful situation.
The brutal facts of Paul’s situation – along with his traveling companions – are monstrous: They lost all hope of being saved. But there is yet hope. Paul delivers a message of hope in the face of despair. God’s angel had appeared to him. This was a messenger from the God Paul served and believed in. The message had a solid dose of brutal facts: the ship would be lost. But there was hope: no lives would be lost.
There is an even greater hope to which Paul refers when he speaks to the people on the ship. Paul will get to Rome and stand before Caesar. He will stand before Caesar and will no doubt testify to the eternal hope we have in Jesus’ resurrection.
No matter how dire the circumstances may be (brutal facts), there is always hope. Always. The tomb is empty. Our salvation has been won. We will rise with Jesus on the Last Day. That is the kind of hope that withstands even the most dire circumstance and brutal despair.
Face the brutal facts – whatever they may be in your life; and
Hold onto hope – in Jesus’ help here and now and in his salvation in the life of the world to come.
David Bahn - Reflections 
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